Annotations of papers in 2009-2010

Solojentsev E.D. , Kozlov K. A. LP-models of non-success risk of decision of difficult economical problems (in print).

We propose the  logical-probabilistic (LP) model of non-success risk of decision  difficult economic problems, in which sub]ects solving  the  problem  (government, banks, business, academics, public opinion) and solving tasks logically relate as events. It is shown that without scientists, new technologies and public opinion can not effectively solve difficult economic problems of Russia. An example we consider the non-success risk LP-model to counteraction of  bribes and corruption.

Solojentsev E.D.  Logic and probabilistic management of risk non-validity of testing   (developing) of systems and processes.–Problems of risk analysis, 2010,2. 

We state basis of logical-probabilistic management by non-validity of debugging tests (DT) of machines, processes and systems. We consider the example of meaningful engineering descriptions of scenarios of failures and breakdowns in DT of the technical system. We present LP-description of events, introduce events and the logical Boolean variables for initiating, derivatives, and final events. The risk LP-model of invalidity of DT consider as disjunction of the shortest paths (conjunctions) of derivatives invalidity events. The risk L-function has repeated elements, what complicates calculations of the risk P-function. We investigate the risk LP-model invalid of DT of technical system and identify the structural importance of initiating events and their contributions to the risk of invalidity of DT. We develop the technique of risk management of invalidity of first DT, and present the scheme of risk management of invalidity of the whole process of DT, including several stages. We consider features of risk management of invalidity of operational and evolution debugging tests.

Solojentsev E.D. Can we solve the problem of caunteraction to bribes and corruption without  scientists?

We consider the intelligent innovative information technologies (I ?-technologies) to counteraction to bribes and corruption. I ?-technology use statistical data, logic and probabilistic (LP) risk model and knowledge base. It is shown that without I ?-technology, knowledge, and scientists can not solve the problem of bribes and corruption. We describe the LP-model for estimation of probabilities of bribes and corruption in the institution, official and at service.

Solojentsev E. D., Karasev V. V. I³–thechnologies for counteraction to bribes and corruptions. – Problems of risk analysis, 2010, 1.

We state the task of non-success risk management  for decision of difficult economic problems. We propose the logical-probabilistic (LP) model of non-success risk for decision of difficult problem of combating bribes and corruption. We state the basic concepts  of I³ - technologies with the risk LP-models and knowledge bases (KB) to manage risk in economics. We consider the classes of risk LP-risk models and procedures of I³ - technologies. We state applications of I ³- technologies  for risk management in different areas. We describe I³-technology and the risk LP-model to identify bribes and corruption in the institution, officials and at service using statistical data. It is shown that without scientists, I³ - technologies  and public opinion can not be effectively solve many difficult economic problems of Russia.

Solojentsev E.D. Subjects of research on LP-management of risk and efficiency in structural and complex systems. In works of conference "Safety of critical infrastructure and territories". Yekaterinburg: US RAS, 2009.

We state some general concept of LP-management, present classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency, describe procedures of technology of LP-management, present the table for themes of researches, state advantages and applications of LP-management. The themes includes the development and investment of classes of LP- models and efficiency, procedures of technology of management risk and efficiency, data and knowledge bases and software.