И-3 ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ - About site
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 И³-ТЕХНОЛОГИИ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ
I-CUBE-TECHNOLOGIES IN ECONOMICS
Стратегические компьютерные технологии
и     программное обеспечение
Strategical computer technologies and Software
Professor E. D. Solojentsev
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About site

Any sufficiently advanced  technology is indistinguishable from a magic.
Arthur Clark

Logic and probabilistic management (LP-management) of risk and efficiency in economical and organizational systems

Objective

Promotion models, technologies and software  for decision of difficult economic problems with adequate mathematical  LP-apparatus.

Novelty

Proposed innovations are united  by the concept (brand) "Information Innovative Intellectual  Technologies” (I³-technologies) with  risk LP-models, knowledge bases in the form of systems of logic equations and special software.

I³-technologies (I-cube-technologies) are:

  • Informational since they use data bases (DB), automatic processing of statistical data and special software.
  • Innovative since they use LP-models of risk that ensure the whole number of advantages in accuracy, robustness property and transparency of evaluation and analysis of the system states risk.
  • Intellectual since they use knowledge bases (KB) in the form of the systems of logic equations. This allows getting new knowledge for the system’s management on risk and efficiency criteria.

Brand I³-technologies for risk management

  • To guarantee decision of new tasks and economic problems;
  • To expand opportunities of analysis, forecasting and management of risk in the economics;
  • To allow  consideration of  risk  in  complex economic systems and  processes, in  which  elements  are  the state, business, banks, academics and  social opinion and   problems of  assessment, analysis, forecasting and management of risk;
  • To develop economic science;
  • To be the basis for formulating and decision of difficult economic problems.

The site is intended for professionals in the field of risk management; students, graduate-students and instructors of economic and financial departments of universities.


The true logic of our world is calculation of probabilities.
D. K. Maxwell

 
List of  defended  thesis on the theme

V.V. Alexeev. Developing logic and probabilistic models, methods and algorithms for management  of risk and efficiency in structure-complex systems. GUAP, SPb.. 2009.

E.V. Alexanrova. Management of business of restaurant by criteria of risk and efficiency. SPb. Engineering and economical  university, 2008.  

N.Y. Lebedev. Experience and models of non-success risk of management (Tranzas company). Nord-west SIIC and PN. 2005.

V.V. Karasev. Developing and investigation of logic and probabilistic  risk models  in business and methods of its identification with taking into account groups of incompatible events. SPb.: SPIIRAN,  2000.


Who does not know what harbor he is swimming, 
to ensure there is no favorable wind.
Seneka
 
In the problem of LP-management of systems risk and efficiency we consider four aspects:
  1. Engineering: allocation of subsystems, leading to invalid system, and the parameters affecting the validity of the subsystems;
  2. Logical: the definition of  "events in the system" and their corresponding Boolean logic variables, which for initiating, derivatives, and the final events are equal to 0 or 1;
  3. Methodology: the definition and meaning of validity as the event in the system by analogy with such concepts as the events of failure and success (failure);
  4. Computing: the transition from the risk L-model to the risk P-model of invalidity practically possible only in the presence of special software.
Preparing a scenario of success (failure) of the economic or organizational system is a creative process, which must execute people having  deeply knowledge about  the system. Only a specialist can formulate hypotheses, which lead to success (failure) in a natural language.


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